Lower Mainland Housing Market: Buyers in the Driver's Seat for Summer 2025

Based on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board's report for May 2025, here is an analysis of the current housing market and a forecast for the next three months in the Lower Mainland:

Current Market Analysis (as of May 2025)

The Lower Mainland housing market is currently favoring buyers. Here's a breakdown of the key indicators:

• Sales are sluggish: While there was a 13% increase in home sales from April to May, this is a typical seasonal uptick. More importantly, sales are down a significant 22% compared to May of last year and are 36% below the 10-year average for the month. This points to a considerable slowdown in buyer activity.

• Inventory is high and growing: The number of homes available for sale is on the rise. Active inventory is up 6% from last month and a substantial 34% from last year, putting it 54% above the 10-year seasonal average. This abundance of listings gives buyers more choice and negotiating power.

• Prices are declining: With more homes on the market than buyers, prices are starting to soften. The composite benchmark price for a home in the Fraser Valley dipped by 1% in May. All property types saw a decrease in price compared to the previous month and the previous year:

  • Single-family detached homes: Benchmark price of $1,481,900 (down 1.6% from April 2025 and 3.2% from May 2024).

  • Townhomes: Benchmark price of $832,800 (down 0.03% from April 2025 and 2.5% from May 2024).

  • Apartments/Condos: Benchmark price of $532,700 (down 0.9% from April 2025 and 4.0% from May 2024).

    
    

Housing Forecast for the Lower Mainland (June - August 2025)

The trends observed in May are expected to continue through the summer months, solidifying a buyer's market in the Lower Mainland.

• Prices will likely continue to soften: With high inventory levels and muted sales, the downward pressure on prices is expected to persist. We anticipate a continued gradual decline in home prices over the next three months.

• Sales to remain below-average: While summer is typically a busier season for real estate, the current economic climate, including higher interest rates, will likely keep sales activity below historical norms.

• Inventory will remain elevated: The high number of homes for sale will likely be a defining feature of the summer market. This will continue to provide buyers with ample choice and leverage in negotiations.

  
  

In summary, the next three months in the Lower Mainland housing market will likely be characterized by:

• Favorable conditions for buyers: Buyers will continue to have the upper hand with more options and negotiating power.

• Challenges for sellers: Sellers will need to be realistic with their pricing and expect their properties to take longer to sell.

• A continued cooling trend: The market is expected to continue its shift towards a more balanced state, moving away from the seller's market seen in previous years.

  
  

 Sources: https://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package202505.pdf