Greater Vancouver Buyer's Market: Summer 2025 Outlook

Based on a comprehensive analysis of the Greater Vancouver Realtors' May 2025 statistics package, the housing forecast for the next three months (June, July, and August) points towards a continued buyer's market, characterized by stable or slightly decreasing prices, abundant inventory, and subdued sales activity.

Here is a detailed breakdown of the forecast:

Key Indicators from the May 2025 Report:

• Slowing Sales: May saw residential sales drop by 18.5% compared to May 2024 and were 30.5% below the 10-year seasonal average. This indicates significant buyer hesitation.

• Surging Inventory: The total number of homes listed for sale is at a ten-year high, up 25.7% from last year and a remarkable 45.9% above the ten-year average. This surge in available properties gives buyers unprecedented choice.

• Declining Prices: The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,177,100 in May, a 2.9% decrease from May 2024 and a 0.6% dip from the previous month. This downward price trend is a direct result of high inventory and low sales.

• Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio: This critical metric stood at 13.4% overall in May. Generally, downward pressure on home prices occurs when this ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while upward pressure is seen when it surpasses 20%. The current ratio is on the cusp of buyer's market territory.

Housing Forecast for June, July, and August 2025:

• For Buyers: The next three months will likely present a favourable window of opportunity. The high inventory levels mean more choice and less competition, reducing the likelihood of bidding wars. Buyers will have more negotiating power on price and conditions. The market is not expected to see a significant uptick in sales activity, which should keep conditions in their favor.

• For Sellers: Patience will be key. With a glut of properties on the market, sellers should expect longer days on market for their listings. Pricing competitively from the outset will be crucial to attract serious offers. The current market conditions suggest that significant price appreciation is unlikely in the short term.

Forecast by Property Type:

• Detached Homes: This segment is most firmly in a buyer's market, with a sales-to-active listings ratio of just 10.2%. Prices for detached homes are expected to remain soft and may see further modest declines over the summer as inventory continues to outpace sales.

• Townhomes and Apartments: These markets are more balanced but still tilting in favor of buyers. The sales-to-active listings ratios were 17.4% for townhomes and 14.7% for apartments in May. While more resilient than the detached market, the sheer volume of listings will likely prevent any significant price growth. The benchmark price for attached homes did see a slight month-over-month increase of 0.4%, but this is unlikely to signal a new upward trend given the broader market conditions.

In conclusion, the summer of 2025 is shaping up to be a period of market stabilization and a clear advantage for buyers. While the unusually slow spring could lead to a slightly busier summer than typical as some buyers decide to act, the fundamental dynamic of high inventory and cautious demand is expected to persist, keeping a lid on any potential price escalation.

Source: https://members.gvrealtors.ca/news/GVR-Stats-Package-May-2025.pdf